Reading a market

Every market is a question with a YES or NO outcome, such as “Will Detroit win?”. You can take either side.

Buy or sell?

• Buy if you think the outcome will be YES.
• Sell if you think it will be NO. If you sell “Detroit to win”, your position pays out if Detroit does not win.

The market’s Rules tab sets out exactly what counts as YES. Read it before you trade.

What the price means

For a binary contract with a $1 settlement value, a contract pays $1 if the outcome is YES and $0 if it is NO. The price is what one contract costs, and can be read as an approximate market implied probability of YES: $0.68 is about 68%. It reflects trading interest, not a forecast. See Pricing.

• A buyer at $0.68 pays $0.68 per contract, and is paid $1.00 per contract if the outcome is YES.
• A seller at $0.68 pays $0.32 per contract, and is paid $1.00 per contract if the outcome is NO.

What quantity means

Quantity is the number of contracts. 20 contracts bought at $0.68 cost $13.60 and pay $20.00 if the outcome is YES, a profit of $6.40 before fees. This example does not predict an outcome.

My order was rejected or canceled

If an order is rejected, or you cancel it before it fills, the funds held for it return to your available balance. If an order is only partly filled, the filled part becomes a position.